Analytics or Instinct for 2025/26?

Alright, the new season’s here, and it’s not just about vibes, transfers, and drama. The numbers tell the real story. Expected goals (xG), pressing stats, and how strong teams are at the back give us way better hints about who’s gonna own the Premier League and who might take the Champions League.

Premier League: Bet on Stats or Bet on Your Heart?

The Prem is wild right now because the gap between the top teams is super small. Here’s how the big boys look:

• Manchester City (admittedly this is MY TEAM!!)

• Still the team to beat, but not as scary as before.

• xG last season: 77.3 (highest in the league).

• xGA: 33.4 (2nd best defense).

• Problem? Their midfield is aging and their defense gets shaky when teams hit them on the counter. Translation: if you press them hard and break quick, they wobble.

• Arsenal

• Honestly the most balanced side right now.

• xGA: 29.6 (best defense in the league).

• PPDA: 9.2 (translation: they press like maniacs, 1st in Prem).

• Only issue: finishing. Their conversion rate was 11.7% — City’s was 14.2%. If their strikers put away even a few more chances, they’re legit title favorites.

• Liverpool

• Klopp’s gone, new era starting.

• xG: 70.2 (solid), xGA: 36.9 (a bit leaky).

• Darwin Núñez is the chaos factor: 0.62 xG per 90 (amazing positions) but only scoring 0.38 per 90. If he stops hitting row Z, Liverpool could cook.

• Chelsea

• Spent a fortune, still vibes FC.

• xG: 61.9 (decent), xGA: 42.7 (meh).

• Basically they get into the final third but turn it into shots only 27% of the time — that’s 9th best. Tactical mess still.

• Man United

• Let’s just say the numbers don’t lie:

• xG: 54.8 (7th), xGA: 49.3 (10th).

• Shot differential was actually negative — that’s embarrassing for a so-called top-six team. They rely way too much on individual moments.

Verdict: Arsenal’s numbers scream “champions,” City are still lethal because of their finishing, and Liverpool are the wildcard if Darwin finds his shooting boots. Three-way fight incoming.

Champions League Who’s Built for Europe?

This season’s UCL has a new format. More games, less room for flukes. Consistency is everything.

• Manchester City

• xG in Europe: 23.4 (2nd overall).

• Possession: 65% (literally no one touches the ball against them).

• Issue: only 36% success rate when defending counters. Same old weakness.

• Arsenal

• xGA: 0.78 per 90 (2nd best in Europe — their defense travels well).

• PPDA: 8.7 (pressing like crazy).

• Problem: xG created was only 1.29 per 90 — not enough firepower compared to Madrid or Bayern.

• Real Madrid

• Still built different.

• xG: 26.1 (best in the comp).

• Goals per shot on target: 0.38 (deadliest finishers).

• Jude Bellingham is doing striker numbers from midfield — 0.58 xG + xA per 90. Ridiculous.

• Bayern Munich

• xG: 21.8 (decent), xGA: 16.7 (leaky).

• Relying way too much on Harry Kane (34% of their xG came from him). If he has a bad night, they’re toast.

• PSG

• Life after Mbappé is gonna be rough.

• xG: 1.51 per 90 (solid), PPDA: 10.9 (not pressing that hard).

• Without Mbappé’s 0.70 xG + xA per 90, it’s hard to see them scaring the big dogs.

Verdict: Madrid are still the kings of Europe, City will be there or thereabouts, and Arsenal could surprise if they start finishing chances.

What will It actually take ?

1. Pressing Intensity – Arsenal and Liverpool press harder than anyone (sub-10 PPDA). Can they keep it up over 50+ games?

2. Finishing – City and Madrid convert 14–15% of shots into goals. Arsenal and Liverpool are stuck around 11–12%. That’s literally the title gap.

3. Defense Wins Trophies – Arsenal’s xGA (29.6) is championship-level. If they keep that up, they can finally break City’s streak.

4. Rotation Game – New UCL format = more matches. Teams that share minutes better (like City’s 15-man rotation) will peak in April, not burn out.

My Take

This season’s going be chaos in the best way. Arsenal look the most “complete” team, City still have the killer instinct, and Liverpool are a Darwin hot streak away from being dangerous again.

In Europe, Madrid’s numbers are filthy, but the Premier League trio (City, Arsenal, Liverpool) aren’t far off. The real decider? Who handles defensive transitions best. ‘Cause even the elites are getting cooked on the counter right now.